Innovation and Change

An interview with Ines Haaga and Jan Lorbach, NIQ/GfK

GFU: Ines, Jan – thank you very much for taking the time for this conversation. As experts in the field of consumer intelligence, you can certainly give us exciting insights into current market developments. How does the smartphone and laptop market compare with recent years?

Jan Lorbach (NIQ/GfK): The market has undergone a significant change in recent years. Compared with 2019, demand for smartphones has fallen by 25%; even compared with the pandemic years 2020/21, we are seeing a decline of 14%. At the same time, however, there is a trend toward premiumization: despite declining unit sales, global revenue in US dollars has increased – for 2024, we expect growth of 2% compared with 2023.

Ines Haaga (NIQ/GfK): For laptops, we are seeing a different development. Demand is roughly at the level of 2019, although lower than at the peak of the pandemic. In 2024, demand was around 4% below the previous year. Mobile PCs benefited strongly from the home office boom as well as homeschooling; during the pandemic, sales figures were at times 20% above the pre-crisis level. Media tablets are particularly exciting: here we saw a new high in sales figures in 2024, with an increase of 14% compared with 2023 and significantly above the figures for 2019 and the pandemic years. Revenue in US dollars also grew, by 8% compared with 2023.

What role do new legal requirements, such as the right to repair or EU directives, play in these markets?

Jan Lorbach: The impact of regulation is currently still limited. Some manufacturers have already responded – Apple, for example, by switching to USB-C. But the smartphone market is strongly brand-driven. For many consumers, sustainability aspects play a secondary role compared with brand loyalty.

Ines Haaga: In the long term, however, an effect could become apparent: if devices become more durable and have to become more durable, the number of new purchases needed each year will fall. This is likely to further dampen demand. At the same time, it could further strengthen the market for refurbished devices – price-sensitive consumers in particular could increasingly turn to high-quality used devices.

Has consumer purchasing behavior changed due to inflation or longer usage cycles?

Jan Lorbach: Yes, clearly. The usage period of smartphones has increased significantly. In 2020, 50% of buyers said that their previous device was at least three years old. In 2024, the figure is already 71%. Because smartphones are used for longer, consumers place more value on premium devices when buying – preferring a high-priced device every four years rather than a mid-range model every two years. This also explains the increase in revenue despite falling unit sales.

Ines Haaga: We are seeing a similar development with laptops and tablets. Replacement cycles are becoming longer, while tablets are gaining popularity thanks to their good price-performance ratio. They cover basic PC functions but are often significantly cheaper – an attractive factor, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

Which features are currently most important to consumers?

Jan Lorbach: For smartphones, battery life, storage capacity and camera quality are the main priorities. AI is not yet a central purchase criterion at present.

Ines Haaga: For laptops, RAM, operating system and battery life are decisive. AI optimization is being noticed, but is not yet among the top purchase criteria.

Which age group invests the most in smartphones?

Jan Lorbach: Young consumers under the age of 25 are the most willing to spend: in 2024, 25% of smartphone buyers in this age group spent more than €900 on a smartphone. This figure decreases with increasing age – among those over 55, it is only 12%.

Will tablets play a larger role than laptops in the long term?

Ines Haaga: I see tablets as a complement to laptops, not as a replacement. Depending on the application, both devices play to their respective strengths. Attempts to combine the tablet form factor and laptop performance in one device have so far not gained traction in the mass market.

Looking to the future: are there technologies that could one day replace smartphones or laptops?

Jan Lorbach: Not in the short or medium term. Smartphones are optimal in their size and functionality. Smart glasses could be an alternative, but I assume that many people will not want to wear glasses for aesthetic reasons. Perhaps smart contact lenses or wearables with projection technology are a future approach.

Ines Haaga: For laptops, VR/AR could play a role, for example as a monitor replacement. However, the controls are not yet mature. A combination of AR glasses, a portable computing unit and gesture control would be exciting – but at present that is still a thing of the future.

GFU: Thank you very much for the conversation and the exciting insights!

The interview was conducted by Marie-Charlotte von Heyking of gfu Consumer & Home Electronics GmbH with NIQ/GfK experts Ines Haaga and Jan Lorbach as part of MWC Barcelona.