Insights into the global smartphone and laptop market
An interview with Ines Haaga and Jan Lorbach, NIQ/ GfK
gfu GmbH: Ines, Jan – thank you for taking the time to talk to us. As experts in consumer intelligence, you are surely having some fascinating insights to share with us on current market developments. How are the smartphone and laptop markets performing compared to recent years?
Jan Lorbach (NIQ/GfK): The market has undergone significant changes in recent years. Compared to 2019, demand for smartphones has fallen by 25%, and even compared to the pandemic years of 2020/21, we see a decline of 14%. At the same time, however, there is a trend towards premiumization: despite downturn in unit sales, global sales in US dollars have increased – for 2024, we measure an increase of 2% compared to 2023.
Ines Haaga (NIQ/GfK): We see a different development for the laptop segment. Demand is tracking around the 2019 level, but lower than at the height of the pandemic. In 2024, demand was about 4% below the previous year. Mobile PCs have benefited greatly from the rise in working from home and home schooling, with sales figuresup to 20% above pre-crisis levels during the pandemic. Media tablets are particularly exciting: here, we saw a new high in sales units in 2024, with an increase of 14% over 2023 and well above the figures for 2019 and the pandemic years. Sales in US dollars have also grown, by 8% compared to 2023.
gfu GmbH: What role do new legal requirements, such as the right to repair or EU directives, play in these markets?
Jan Lorbach: The impact of regulations is currently still limited. Some manufacturers have already reacted – Apple, for example, with the switch to USB-C. But brand loyalty is the dominant force in the smartphone market, and often eclipsing sustainability considerations for many consumersInes Haaga: In the long run, more durable devices will lead to a lengthening of the repurchase cycle. In addition, this will also boost the market for refurbished devices. Price-sensitive consumers in particular could increasingly turn to high-quality used devices
gfu GmbH: Has inflation or longer usage cycles changed consumer buying behaviour?
Jan Lorbach: Yes, definitely. The lifecycle of smartphones has increased significantly. In 2020, 50% of buyers said that their previous device was at least three years old. In 2024, the figure is already at 71%. As smartphones are being used for longer, consumers are placing more value on premium devices when making a purchase – they would rather have a high-priced device every four years than a mid-range model every two years. This also explains the increase in revenues despite falling unit numbers.
Ines Haaga: We are seeing a similar trend in laptops and tablets. Replacement cycles are lengthening, while tablets are gaining in popularity due to their good price-performance ratio. They cover basic PC functions, but are often significantly cheaper – an attractive factor, especially in times of economic uncertainty.
gfu GmbH: What features are currently most important to consumers?
Jan Lorbach When it comes to smartphones, consumers prioritize battery life, storage capacity, and camera quality. Interestingly, AI has not yet emerged as a key purchase criterion.
Ines Haaga: For laptops, the most critical features are RAM, the operating system, and battery life. While AI optimization is recognized, it has not yet become a top purchase criterion.
gfu GmbH: Which age group invests the most in smartphones?
Jan Lorbach: Young consumers under the age of 25 are the most willing to spend: 25% of smartphone buyers in this age group spent more than €900 on a smartphone in 2024. This figure decreases with age – for those over 55, only 12% spent more than €900.
gfu GmbH: Will tablets play a bigger role than laptops in the long term?
Ines Haaga: I see tablets as a supplement to laptops, not as a replacement. Depending on the application, both devices focus on their respective strengths. Attempts to combine tablet form factor and laptop performance in one device have not yet caught on in the mass market.
gfu GmbH: Looking to the future, are there any technologies that could one day replace smartphones or laptops?
Jan Lorbach: Not in the short or medium term. Smartphones are optimized for their size and functionality. While smart glasses could be an alternative, many people might avoid wearing them because they don’t like how they look with glasses. Perhaps smart contact lenses or wearables with projection technology are a future approach.
Ines Haaga: VR/AR could play a role for laptops, for example as a replacement for monitors. However, the AR/VR controls are not yet suitable for mass market usage. A combination of AR/VR glasses, a portable computing unit and gesture control would be exciting – but that is still a long way off.
gfu GmbH: Thank you very much for the conversation and the exciting insights!
The interview was conducted by Marie-Charlotte von Heyking from gfu Consumer & Home Electronics GmbH with NIQ/GfK expertsInes Haaga and Jan Lorbach at the MWC Barcelona.