TCG 2026 Global: Growth Returns – Selectively

The TCG market entered 2026 with an appearance that seemed stable at first glance – but beneath the surface, the picture is more uneven. Growth is back – measured by revenue. However, the recovery continues to vary by region, category, and sales channel. The global TCG market value reached around 857 billion US dollars in 2025 – an increase of about 5%, even though the recovery in sales volume remained weak. China, the Middle East, Africa, and Eastern Europe were the key growth drivers. While China’s trade policy had still driven growth in the first half of 2025, the abrupt reversal at the end of 2025 reflected more of a subsidy hangover than a genuine collapse in demand. This shows that in the market, baselines can distort reality just as much as they can reveal it. Inflation has normalized over the past 18 months – albeit at very different speeds depending on the region. As a result of the war in the Middle East since March 2026, it also threatens to rise again. Tariff rules have been unstable since April 2025, and since the beginning of 2026, geopolitical tensions overall have increasingly weighed on supply chains and pricing – for example through the helium shortage and its consequences for the tech supply chain. This could further exacerbate the shortage of storage technologies that is already burdening the industry. According to NIQ Supply Chain Insights, prices for storage components in Europe in February 2026 were 55% higher than the previous year’s level. For companies in the TCG sector, the real challenge is therefore no longer to predict the cycle – but to build the flexibility to master it.

This has given rise to a new type of buyer: more considered, more disciplined. Last year, 63% of TCG buyers described themselves as highly price-sensitive. At the same time, this shift also brings opportunities – for example for refurbished products, which are gaining momentum. Refurbished smartphones have now reached an 11 percent unit share in the six largest EU markets. Value-oriented purchasing behavior is no longer a niche phenomenon. It is a conscious, considered decision. Consumers are planning more clearly how and, above all, when they buy.

This discipline is also reflected in the reasons that lead to a purchase: in categories such as laptops, vacuum cleaners, and dishwashers, for example, a new purchase is only made when the previous model no longer works – less out of a simple desire to upgrade the device. At the same time, promotional periods have become planned shopping occasions – and are no longer opportunities for impulse purchases. The seven largest promotional periods now extend over 15 weeks of the year and account for 35% of global annual TCG revenue. Buyers wait, compare – and buy when the timing is right. Brands are therefore competing far less on desirability and much more clearly on arguments, reliability, and trust. This is all the more true as 60% of consumers cite good value for money as the most important thing in a brand – durability, quality, convenience, and trust are preferred over a merely low price. Performance or value is not measured by price. It means that a purchase must feel smart, safe, and right.

Read part two next week: How AI and new sales channels are changing the rules of the game for TCG brands in 2026 – and who stands to benefit.