What a Year!
According to GfK 2024 has been a rollercoaster year for Tech & Durables (T&D), full of ups and downs and a mix of different trends. As we wrap up the year, it’s a great opportunity to reflect on key factors that influenced the market.
A Year of Recovery and Growth
From January to November, T&D saw a positive shift, ending with a +1.0% increase in USD and +0.7% in units (excluding US/Russia). This is a significant improvement compared to 2023, which had a -3% decline in both USD and units. The post-COVID recovery has continued, and the market has found its footing again.
Q1– Strong Start, IT Challenges
The year started strong, matching 2023’s performance. The demand for smartphone replacements remained high, but the IT sector (laptops, tablets, etc.) struggled due to lingering post-COVID saturation.
Q2 – Slowdown, Shifting Market Trends
This was the weakest quarter, falling behind 2023. However, the dynamics began to shift as the Smartphone drive slowed down, IT sales started picking up, and the Euro Cup boosted TV sales in volume, though not in USD.
Q3 – Positives Growth Across Sectors
The first truly positive quarter with a +0.8% increase in USD. Inflation declined, and interest rates further reduced in many countries. IT sector saw its first positive growth as the replacement cycle kicked in, 4.5 years post-COVID. All sectors turned positive except for Office and Consumer Electronics (CE).
Oct/Nov 2024 – Surging Sales Driven by Subsidies
These months saw extraordinary sales growth of +5.4%, thanks to a Chinese subsidy trade-in program for Major Domestic Appliances, Consumer Electronics, and IT products. October was particularly strong with a +13% value growth due to China’s influence and India’s Diwali festival moving to October from November in 2024.
October also saw the highest USD price growth (+6%) due to subsidies in China. Overall though, January to November prices were relatively flat at +0.3% in USD but saw a significant +4% increase in local currencies due to continued inflation impact.
Looking Ahead to 2025
Let’s be cautiously optimistic for 2025. There is not much expectation for further dramatic increase in dynamic, but rather a steady, moderate growth of around 1% in USD (including US), which could translate to a 2-3% growth in local currencies.
The IT sector is expected to see an increase in demand due to the end of Windows 10 support and the natural replacement cycle post COVID. Home appliances should continue their moderate growth trend, while CE might face weaker demand due to a lack of major sports events. Depending on subsidy programs in China, smartphones could have another good year in 2025.
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Based on a partnership between GfK SE, gfu Consumer & Home Electronics GmbH and IFA Management GmbH, we provide regular information on market developments and trends in the consumer electronics and home appliances industry. Interesting insights, current market figures, consumer trends and much more will be professionally prepared for you from the sources of the three expert partners.