First of all, the year 2026 is hampered by a “chipflation” dilemma. Because large semiconductor capacities are being redirected toward memory components in B2B AI infrastructures, component prices – especially for consumer electronics – have been rising significantly. Retailers and their customers are already feeling the impact, leading price-sensitive consumers to put planned purchases on hold or opt for more budget-friendly entry-level products instead. It won’t be until 2027 that newly created chip production capacity could ease the overall strain on the market and remove purchase barriers by stabilizing prices once again.

Another issue shows in the cyclical catch-up effect from the pandemic years, which is not expected to subside before 2027. Similar to major domestic appliances, consumer electronics benefited from a pandemic-driven peak in 2022, which led to a large number of purchases being brought forward, particularly for personal and tablet computers as well as television sets. This, in turn, resulted in a downturn in demand for the following years. However, edge AI in particular will provide significant momentum for the IT market from 2027 onwards.

Moreover, the recovery is driven by a gradual restoration of purchasing power. The year 2026 is still marked by a pronounced polarization in consumer spending: While the high-end segment remains stable, broad levels of the population, intimidated by the specter of inflation, sit tight and hold on to their money. Not until sometime in 2027, inflation rates are expected to drop, and real-wage increases should cause this target consumer group to shed its reticence, returning to the electronics market as a key consumer base and shifting the market – or at least parts of it – from a sluggish sideways trend to solid growth.