Initially, 2026 will be slowed by a “chipflation” dilemma. Because large semiconductor capacities for memory components are being redirected to B2B AI infrastructures, component prices are rising significantly, especially for consumer electronics. Retailers and end consumers are also feeling this, causing price-sensitive consumers to postpone planned purchases or opt for entry-level products. It may not be until 2027 that newly created chip production capacities ease the market overall and reduce purchasing barriers through stabilized prices.

Another factor can be seen in the cyclical catch-up effect from the pandemic years, which is expected to subside only from 2027 onward. Similar to major household appliances, consumer electronics benefited from a pandemic peak in 2022, which also led to a large number of purchases being brought forward, particularly for PCs, tablets, and televisions, leaving the market short of demand in the period that followed. However, the topic of edge AI in particular will provide decisive momentum for the IT market from 2027 onward.

Last but not least, the recovery is being supported by a gradual regeneration of purchasing power. The year 2026 is still characterized by pronounced consumer polarization: while the premium segment remains stable, the broad segment of the population unsettled by inflation is keeping a tight hold on its money. It is likely only over the course of 2027 that falling inflation rates and real wage growth will lead this target group of buyers to abandon its consumer restraint and return to the electronics market as a key consumer base, moving the market from sluggish sideways movement into partly solid growth.