Macroeconomic conditions for the manufacturing industry in Germany and Europe will remain challenging in the medium term. A sustained period of economic stagnation and the lack of sweeping economic policy reforms have dampened confidence among manufacturers and retailers. On top of this, continued geopolitical tensions and the resulting effects on global trade routes hit the industry with supply-chain disruptions and rising expenses for raw materials and transportation, to name just a few factors. Furthermore, latent risks remain due to new international tariffs, persistently high energy costs, and the lack of significant bureaucratic and regulatory relief for businesses. Private households, too, are feeling the impact of high prices for utilities and staples, further reinforcing their already pronounced frugality. A gradual normalization of consumer spending is not expected until 2027, at which point consumers’ pent-up purchasing power will be released gradually: purchases that had been put on hold will be made, in addition to regular replacement purchases.

This recovery is bolstered by a medium-term easing of inflation, leading to a partial stabilization of real earnings, which makes postponed purchases feasible once again. However, a fundamental shift is taking place in consumer behavior: While the trend toward “down-trading” – the deliberate decision to prefer entry-level products or promotional items – is keeping sales volumes stable overall, it will not fire up sales growth. On the other hand, however, new growth is being fueled by external factors. Progressive climatic change, for example, has recently triggered a sales boom in air-conditioning and ventilation devices, and this trend is set to continue. For large segments of the population, A/C units have evolved from an optional luxury item to an essential part of their domestic infrastructure.

At the same time, consumer psychology in the private sphere is shifting from the rational fulfillment of needs toward emotional self-expression. Driven by high-reach social media phenomena such as professionally staged “morning routines” or aesthetically pleasing “coffee corners” on platforms such as TikTok or Instagram, consumers are developing a strong, emotionally charged desire for certain lifestyle products. For a sense of recreating the purported daily lives of their digital role models in their own homes, some consumers are willing to invest extraordinary amounts. Stylish kitchen appliances and beauty products have thus become status symbols in urban environments. These specific microeconomic trend waves primarily cater to younger target groups with strong purchasing power and, in conjunction with a gradual recovery in traditional consumer segments, they form the foundation for a moderate turnaround of the overall market in 2027 – a development that is analyzed in detail for the individual submarkets.