Insights & Trends Forecast

The Market in Motion

Forecasts and Trends for
Consumer and Home Electronics

Changing consumer habits and global economic conditions are increasingly presenting companies with new challenges. To make informed decisions in this demanding environment, reliable data and forward-looking analyses are essential. With the Insights & Trends Forecast, we bridge the gap between analysis and industry experience.

All analyses also available as a PDF to take away:
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First edition IFA 2026

Many segments,
one look ahead.

From the overall market to future trends: each area shows how and why it is changing – with interactive revenue trends, forecasts, and the key influencing factors. Choose your starting point and follow developments through to the end of 2027 – segment by segment, with all the key figures and background information.

TCG overall market

Consumer Electronics

Consumer electronics

Telecommunications & IT

Major domestic appliances

Small domestic appliances

Trend topics

Methodology

Methodology

Hybrid methodological approach to creating the forecasts

Observing the past, registering seemingly subtle clues, patterns, or changes in the environment or in behavior before the conscious mind can process them could generally be understood as intuition. Yet it is usually based only on an unconscious logical conclusion. So what can be inferred from today’s market situation in order to create a forecast for the future?

We explored this question and, by combining two recognized methodological approaches, looked at the future development of the technical consumer goods market in Germany. For this purpose, GFU combined a quantitative statistical method – ridge regression – with a qualitative, multi-stage survey method – the Delphi method. This synthesis of data-driven modeling and sound industry expertise overcomes purely mechanical trend extrapolations and generates robust, realistic forecast scenarios.

The Data Core

Ridge Regression Based on HEMIX & CEMIX

The starting point for our analyses is the established industry indices HEMIX and CEMIX (historical revenue data). Since the drivers of consumer behavior are often strongly correlated with one another, we used ridge regression according to Hoerl and Kennard (1970). This statistical method prevents overfitting to historical data and delivers robust forecasts even in volatile times. The calculations are based on eight macroeconomic, technological, and demographic variables, whose impact we weighted differently for major domestic appliances (MDA) as well as small domestic appliances and consumer electronics (SDA/CE) due to slightly different market influencing factors in each case:

# Parameter Wirkungsgewicht (MDA) Wirkungsgewicht (SDA/CE)
1 Real disposable household income Sehr hoch Sehr hoch
2 Konsumklima / Anschaffungsneigung Sehr hoch Sehr hoch
3 Housing market: new construction activity & moving rate Sehr hoch Mittel
4 Produktspezifische Preisentwicklung Hoch Mittel-hoch
5 Zinsniveau &Konsumkreditkonditionen Hoch Mittel
6 Strompreise & Energiekostenbelastung Mittel Gering-mittel
7 Forschung & Entwicklung Mittel Mittel
8 Demographic change & household development Niedrig Sehr niedrig

Impact weight Very high Very low

The Reality Check

The Delphi Survey

We reviewed the forecasts determined by ridge regression using the Delphi method: in a three-stage review, a panel of industry experts, consisting of the largest industrial and retail companies as well as independent business analysts, was surveyed individually, independently of one another, and anonymously:

  • In the first round, the panel evaluated the purely statistically determined forecast and contributed current market sentiment.
  • In the second round, the panelists received the anonymized results of the initial survey in order to analyze their forecast while taking into account the range of responses across the field and, if necessary, refine the assessment they had provided.
  • After a third round following the same process, a final comparison of the assessments was consolidated into a reliable consensus.

The results of this two-stage methodology, combining quantitative calculation and pooled qualitative industry expertise, led to the GFU forecasts presented in the Insights&Trends Forecast.

Marie-Charlotte von Heyking als Datenansprechpartnerin

Direct Contact

Questions about the Insights & Trends Forecast?

Would you like to put figures into context, request an interview, or obtain material for your editorial team? Marie-Charlotte von Heyking is available to answer all your questions about the Insights & Trends Forecast.

Marie-Charlotte von Heyking
Head of Public Relations & Analytics
marie.vonheyking@gfu.de