Insights & Trends Forecast

The Market in Motion

Forecasts and Trends for Consumer and Home Electronics

Changing consumer habits and global economic conditions are increasingly presenting companies with new challenges. To make well-founded decisions in this demanding environment, reliable data and forward-looking analyses are essential. With the Insights & Trends Forecast, we build a bridge between analysis and industry experience.

First Edition IFA 2026

Many segments,
one look ahead.

From the overall market to future trends: each area shows where its segment is heading – with interactive revenue trends, forecasts, and the key drivers. Choose your starting point and follow the development through to 2027 – segment by segment, with all the figures and background information.

TCG Overall Market

Consumer Electronics

Entertainment Electronics

Telecommunications & IT

Major Domestic Appliances

Small Domestic Appliances

Trend Topics

Methodology

Methodology

A Hybrid Method Approach to Forecasting

Observing the past, scanning habits and surroundings for subtle clues, patterns or changes, and catching them long before the conscious mind is able to process them, might be interpreted as premonition – but most of the time, it is nothing but an unconscious process of logical deduction. So – what conclusion can we draw from today’s market situation that will help us predict the future?

To answer this question, GFU merged two established methodologies for insights into the market development for technical consumer goods in Germany. To this end, we combined a quantitative, statistical method – ridge regression – with a qualitative, multi-round survey method – the Delphi technique. This combination of data-driven modeling and solid industry expertise overcomes the drawbacks of purely mathematical trend extrapolations and generates robust, realistic forecast scenarios instead.

The Data Core

The Data Core: Ridge Regression Based on HEMIX and CEMIX

Our analyses are based on the established industry indices, HEMIX and CEMIX (historical sales data). Since there is often a strong correlation between the forces that drive consumer behavior, we employed a ridge regression based on Hoerl and Kennard (1970). This statistical method prevents overfitting to historical data and provides robust forecasts, even in times of volatility. The calculations are based on eight macroeconomic, technological, and demographic variables, which we weighted differently, due to slight differences in market factors affecting major domestic appliances (MDA) on the one hand and small domestic appliances and consumer electronics (SDA/CE) on the other:

# parameter weight factor (MDA) weight factor (SDA/CE)
1 real disposable household income very high very high
2 consumer climate / propensity to buy very high very high
3 housing market: new building activity/residential mobility very high medium
4 product-specific price trends high medium to high
5 interest rate levels and consumer loan terms high medium
6 price of electricity and energy cost burden medium low to medium
7 technological innovation cycle medium medium
8 demographic change and budget development low low

Impact weight Very high Very low

The Reality Check

The Delphi Survey

The forecasts obtained through ridge regression were verified by employing the Delphi method: In a three-round assessment, an expert panel – comprising representatives from the largest industrial and commercial companies as well as independent business analysts – was surveyed individually, seperately, and anonymously:

  • In Round 1, the panel evaluated the forecast that was based on purely statistical data and added current market sentiment to the equation.
  • In Round 2, the panelists were handed the anonymized overall results of the initial survey, allowing them to reanalyze their forecasts in light of the range of responses and, if necessary, refine their own assessment.
  • After Round 3, which followed the same procedure, the assessments were aligned and consolidated into a robust final consensus.

The results of this two-step approach – combining quantitative calculations with consolidated qualitative industry expertise – have led to GFU’s forecasts, presented in the Insights and Trends Forecast.

Marie-Charlotte von Heyking als Datenansprechpartnerin

Direct Contact

Questions about the Insights & Trends Forecast?

Would you like to put figures into context, request an interview, or obtain material for your editorial team? Marie-Charlotte von Heyking is available to answer any questions you may have about the Insights & Trends Forecast.

Marie-Charlotte von Heyking
Head of Public Relations & Analytics
marie.vonheyking@gfu.de