{"id":4428,"date":"2026-08-13T11:38:35","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T09:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/gfu.de\/?page_id=4428"},"modified":"2026-10-29T10:07:10","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T09:07:10","slug":"insights-trends-forecast-2026","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/gfu.de\/en\/insights-trends-forecast-2026\/","title":{"rendered":"Insights-Trends-Forecast 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
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Insights & Trends Forecast<\/p>\n \n

The Market in Motion<\/h2>\n

Forecasts and Trends for
\nConsumer and Home Electronics<\/strong><\/h3>\n

Changing consumer habits and global economic conditions are increasingly presenting companies with new challenges. To make informed decisions in this demanding environment, reliable data and forward-looking analyses are essential. With the Insights & Trends Forecast, we bridge the gap between analysis and industry experience.<\/p>\n

All analyses also available as a PDF to take away: <\/strong>
\nDownload Insights & Trends Forecast\u00a0<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n

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First edition IFA 2026<\/p>\n \n

Many segments,
\none look ahead.<\/h2>\n

From the overall market to future trends: each area shows how and why it is changing – with interactive revenue trends, forecasts, and the key influencing factors. Choose your starting point and follow developments through to the end of 2027 – segment by segment, with all the key figures and background information.<\/p>\n

TCG overall market<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Consumer Electronics<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Consumer electronics<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Telecommunications & IT<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Major domestic appliances<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Small domestic appliances<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Trend topics<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n

Methodology<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n \n

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Methodology<\/p>\n \n

Hybrid methodological approach to creating the forecasts<\/h2>\n

Observing the past, registering seemingly subtle clues, patterns, or changes in the environment or in behavior before the conscious mind can process them could generally be understood as intuition. Yet it is usually based only on an unconscious logical conclusion. So what can be inferred from today\u2019s market situation in order to create a forecast for the future?<\/p>\n

We explored this question and, by combining two recognized methodological approaches, looked at the future development of the technical consumer goods market in Germany. For this purpose, GFU combined a quantitative statistical method \u2013 ridge regression \u2013 with a qualitative, multi-stage survey method \u2013 the Delphi method. This synthesis of data-driven modeling and sound industry expertise overcomes purely mechanical trend extrapolations and generates robust, realistic forecast scenarios.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n \n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n

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The Data Core<\/p>\n \n

Ridge Regression Based on HEMIX & CEMIX<\/h2>\n

The starting point for our analyses is the established industry indices HEMIX and CEMIX (historical revenue data). Since the drivers of consumer behavior are often strongly correlated with one another, we used ridge regression according to Hoerl and Kennard (1970). This statistical method prevents overfitting to historical data and delivers robust forecasts even in volatile times. The calculations are based on eight macroeconomic, technological, and demographic variables, whose impact we weighted differently for major domestic appliances (MDA) as well as small domestic appliances and consumer electronics (SDA\/CE) due to slightly different market influencing factors in each case:<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \n <\/div>\n\n <\/div>\n\n \n

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#<\/th>\n Parameter<\/th>\n Wirkungsgewicht (MDA)<\/th>\n Wirkungsgewicht (SDA\/CE)<\/th>\n <\/tr>\n <\/thead>\n
1<\/span><\/td>\n Real disposable household income<\/th>\n \n Sehr hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Sehr hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
2<\/span><\/td>\n Konsumklima \/ Anschaffungsneigung<\/th>\n \n Sehr hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Sehr hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
3<\/span><\/td>\n Housing market: new construction activity & moving rate<\/th>\n \n Sehr hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Mittel<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
4<\/span><\/td>\n Produktspezifische Preisentwicklung<\/th>\n \n Hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Mittel-hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
5<\/span><\/td>\n Zinsniveau &Konsumkreditkonditionen<\/th>\n \n Hoch<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Mittel<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
6<\/span><\/td>\n Strompreise & Energiekostenbelastung<\/th>\n \n Mittel<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Gering-mittel<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
7<\/span><\/td>\n Forschung & Entwicklung<\/th>\n \n Mittel<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Mittel<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n
8<\/span><\/td>\n Demographic change & household development<\/th>\n \n Niedrig<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n \n Sehr niedrig<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span> <\/td>\n <\/tr>\n <\/tbody>\n <\/table>\n <\/div>\n\n

\n Impact weight<\/span>\n \n <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n Very high <\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span>\n Very low <\/span>\n <\/p>\n \n <\/div>\n<\/section>\n\n<\/div>\n <\/div>\n\n<\/section>\n\n\n\n

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The Reality Check<\/p>\n \n

The Delphi Survey<\/h2>\n

We reviewed the forecasts determined by ridge regression using the Delphi method: in a three-stage review, a panel of industry experts, consisting of the largest industrial and retail companies as well as independent business analysts, was surveyed individually, independently of one another, and anonymously:<\/p>\n