The economy remains under pressure, and white goods are not immune to this either. We spoke with Dr. Martin Schulte, Senior Partner at the strategy consultancy Oliver Wyman and a global expert in consumer electronics and home appliances, about the outlook for 2025. He sheds light on whether the current year can be a way out of the crisis, whether it holds opportunities, and how companies should act now.
\nGFU: How do you assess the growth prospects for the white goods sector and adjacent areas in 2025?
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Dr. Martin Schulte | Oliver Wyman: We are forecasting moderate growth for this year. The new-build sector in the real estate market, which plays an important role for the industry, shrank significantly in 2024 – to just over 200,000 units. I do not expect this to change in the short term, mainly due to inflation and rising living costs. The replacement business also remains highly competitive, with steep discounts and aggressive promotional campaigns.
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GFU: Are there any bright spots as well?
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Martin Schulte: Definitely, initial signs of recovery are visible. The ECB has already lowered the interest rate to below three percent, and we are observing that prices are stabilizing. In addition, the outcome of the federal elections in Germany could provide positive momentum for the sector in the second half of the year.
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GFU: How should companies act in this challenging market environment?
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Martin Schulte: In a situation like this, there is a tendency to forgo investments, manage the business more for the short term, and focus on efficiency and cost reductions. Many companies and CEOs operate either in an expansionary or in a restrictive management mode – hoping for better times with more revenue growth and more optimistic consumer sentiment.
\nWhat is often overlooked: Even in a stagnating market, there is growth potential if you analyze it closely and do not settle for mediocrity. Those who recognize these opportunities and actively make use of them can benefit from fundamental changes.
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GFU: Can you give examples?
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Martin Schulte: Gladly. For example, refocusing on the core of the market. After the price declines of the past two years, we are now seeing growth in the mid-price segment. Manufacturers should be aware of this structural change and adapt their portfolios accordingly. It may make sense to deploy resources for innovation and research in a more targeted way – not only for premium products, but also for the broader, more affordable segments that continue to gain importance.
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GFU: What other approaches do you see that companies can use to grow successfully?
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Martin Schulte: A major lever is the creative activation of consumers. Some brands are currently showing how it is done: they rely on social media, testimonials, agile and consumer-oriented communication – and are achieving growth rates of over 20% even in established markets such as Europe. Those who jump on this bandwagon early will benefit from this trend.
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GFU: Creative ways of addressing consumers – does that also have an impact on sales channels?
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Martin Schulte: I would like to mention a development from the kitchen market: small, digital kitchen studios in city centers offer a comprehensive planning experience, supported by new technologies. So they go to where consumers are; consumers no longer have to drive “out” to a furniture store. There are already real examples of this concept, and it is likely that other providers will follow. Those who get involved early can win new customers here.
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GFU: Everyone is talking about robotics right now: What opportunities do you see in this area?
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Martin Schulte: The revolution in this sector is imminent. In addition to advances in generative AI, physical AI is also developing rapidly. Major US tech companies invested more than 14 billion US dollars in this area in 2024 alone. Particularly exciting: prices for humanoid robots will soon fall below 15,000 US dollars. This opens up entirely new revenue opportunities for companies that are willing to invest in this emerging ecosystem. Europe may not currently be a leader in hardware, which comes from Asia and the US. But opportunities are emerging here, for example in software development, language models, and similar areas.
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GFU: So, all in all, does the old motto “crisis as an opportunity” apply?
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Martin Schulte: In a difficult market environment, it can happen that you become sluggish – with the result that you miss trends in the respective sector that actually offer enormous opportunities for something new. Those who seize these opportunities and set the right course now can lay the foundations for commercial success in the years ahead.
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